Financial journal № 1(19) January-March 2014
A. Balaev, E. Gurvich, I. Prilepskiy, A. Suslina
Effect of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on the Fiscal Revenues
High sensitivity of fiscal revenues to external conditions resulting from the Russian economy's dependence on commodity exports creates a major challenge for budget planning and execution. The paper studies the mechanisms determining the impact of oil prices and exchange rate on government revenues. This analysis provides quantitative estimates of adjustments in nominal and real (adjusted to changes in inflation) revenues caused by an increase and decrease of oil prices by 1 dollar per barrel and exchange rate by the 1 ruble per dollar taking into account both direct and indirect effects of these shocks.
Key words: fiscal policy, budget revenues, oil price, exchange rate
The Conference «Competitiveness of the Common Free Market Zone Financial Markets»
The Financial Journal publishes here materials of the conference where integration of the Common Free Market Zone financial markets has been discussed. S.V. Barsukov, Head of the Financial Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, and other representatives of the Ministry, S.K. Dubinin, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of JSC "Bank VTB", V.S. Nazarov, Director of the Financial Research Institute, and other leading researchers of the Institute, as well as representatives of research and higher education institutions of the Russian Federation have taken part in this conference.
Modeling Traders' Expectations in the FX Market in Terms of Distributions with a Functional Parameter
The paper models a subjective probability density function ascribed to traders in the forex market. The density is obtained simultaneously with its local functional «center», i. e. the value that depends upon the variable and with regard to which central moments are evaluated. Both functions are obtained as solutions to one and the same variational problem. The solution is compatible with some crucial results in behavioral finance. Empirical results concerning the FX market forecasting are obtained and discussed.
Key words: forex market, subjective expectations, behavioral finance, probability density function, calculus of variations
Ya. Boumbadji, A. Tsyganov
The Institutional Structure of Islamic Insurance Regulation
The growth of the Islamic insurance industry and its potential impact raise public policy issues. Indeed, International organizations and standard setters, national regulatory authorities, policy makers, and academia are focusing on risk management practices, the broad institutional environment in which they operate, and the regulatory framework that governs them. Hence International organizations have been established to set standards that would strengthen and eventually harmonize prudential regulations as they apply to Institutions notably the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI), the International Islamic Rating Agency (IIRA), the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). This paper contributes to the discussion on the nature of the prudential standards to be developed for Islamic insurance companies.
Key words: islamic insurance, takaful, institutional regulatory environment, prudential regulation
The Role of Defense-Industrial Complex for the Raise of the Russian Economy
The author of the paper discusses the question of the role of the defense-industrial complex of Russia in the economic recovery of the country. Paying attention to this complex inclusion in the overall system of economic relations, he argues that defense-industrial complex cannot be the only locomotive of economic growth at the modern stage of the Russia's economic development.
Key words: defense-industrial complex, level of economy development, civil sectors of the economy, locomotive of economic growth
The Creation of International Financial Center in Russia: Infrastructure Aspect
In the conditions of globalization of world economic ties development of the national infrastructure as a source of investment activity and a way to improve the global competitiveness is a determining factor. Synthesis of efforts of authorities, business and expert community can ensure the synergetic effect of this development. The article considers the questions of creation of the Russian financial infrastructure as a basis for forming an International financial center in Moscow.
Key words: financial infrastructure, road map, international financial center, competitiveness indicators
On Some Issues of Long-term Budgetary Policy
The article describes clue problems of long-term budgetary strategy development in Russia, the purposes and tasks, which are to be solved with the help of long-term budget projections. The author also evaluates the influence of long-term budgetary projections implementation on the budgetary process.
Key words: long-term budget projections, budgetary strategy, fiscal and budgetary policies
Planning of the Research Costs: the Project-based Approach
This article is devoted to the problems of the improvement of the research quality and the efficiency of planning of government expenditures on research. The paper analyses the foreign and Russian practices of planning of expenditures on research and considers the development perspectives of competitive mechanisms of the expenditure planning in Russia. The author makes conclusions, that the implementation necessity of the project-
based approach and competitive principles in research project expenditure planning are needed regardless of the research funding mechanism.
Key words: science and technology government policy, research work, scientific organization, financial support for research activities, economic feasibility
Tax Policy in Combating the Underground Economy: Improving Tax Collection
In main areas of tax policy in the year 2014, 2015 and 2016 planning period, the planned measures aimed at increasing incomes of the budget system of the Russian Federation. The sources of growth in tax revenues could be both changes in the rules for the calculation and tax payment and improving tax administration. The article considers reserves of growth of tax revenues which have to be found in the sphere of fight against shadow economy.
Key words: taxation, underground economy, offshore, tax residents and non-residents, tax evasion schemes, registration of legal and physical persons, tax administration
Modeling of Financial Innovations in Banking Sector
Innovative financial services foster both financial and real sector development. The research paper introduces multiperiod model of financial innovations, based on Harold Hotelling's
approach (model of a linear city). This model allows to identify factors incentivizing banks for creation new quality services and to comprehend what consumer groups are able to enhance innovative activity of banks.
Key words: financial innovation, Hotelling model, innovator, imitator
Infrastructure Development Through Concession and Long-term Investment Contracts
Under budgetary constraints in order to facilitate development in economic and social infrastructure it seems crucial to attract private investment, primarily on terms of PPP, where concession and long-term investment contracts play the key role. These models imply quite different plans of compensation for invested capital. This paper describes theoretical and practical aspects of such PPP models, and their financial stability under uncertainty. A number of recommendations for practical implementation are given in order to stimulate the use of public-private partnerships in our country.
Key words: infrastructure, concession contract, long-term investment contract (LCC), financial scheme, legal regulation
Financing of the Russian Education and Science: Inputs of Institutional Sectors of the Economy
In the context of human capital theory the author examines long-term trends in level and structural dynamics of financing Russian education system, and research and development (R&D) from various institutional sectors of the national economy. The findings are compared with those for reference countries. The conclusion is stated that in present time priorities are shifting to stimulating provision of funds by financial institutions for student loans to households and by corporate sector for R&D.
Key words: human capital, investments, modernization, education, research and development, knowledge production, socio-economic development, state budget, enterprises, households
Yu. Dormidontova, A. Tikhonova
The Role of "Loss Aversion" in the Creation of Optimal Pension Accumulations' Investment Strategy
The share of pension expenditure in the gross domestic product (GDP) and in the public spending has significantly increased in recent years. For this reason the role of the optimal strategy of investing pension savings is growing as well. This paper examines the impact of "loss aversion" on the formation of investment strategies of pension savings by pension market participants. As foreign experience shows, the best in such conditions is a threshold strategy in which the pension actors and market participants set a certain target level of pension savings.
Key words: "loss aversion", investment of pension accumulations, foreign experience, market of pension products
Households' Monetary Savings over the Life Cycle
We analyze savings behavior of households since 2000. On surveys data it is shown that the practice to save has become more common. Over the life cycle propensity to save has an U-shaped form, being maximal in the early stages of the family formation and in the latest ones. Rare practices to save "for old age" among the middle-age working people make it relevant to induce changes in financial behavior of households in the context of the ongoing pension reform.
Key words: monetary savings, financial behavior, lifecycle, welfare, census
I. Mozhanova, O. Antonyuk
Improvement of Approaches to the Assessment of Financial Stability of the Bank
Stability problems of the Russian banking system deteriorated during the crisis of 2008, when a number of banks, as estimated by rating agencies highly resistant, lost their liquidity and were on the verge of bankruptcy, which could only escape by bank integrations. One of the cause with such a situation was biased assessment of the financial soundness of banks, which determined the need to improve the set of indicators, the use of which would not only give a retrospective evaluation, but predictions of stability in some perspective.
Keywords: financial stability of the bank, indicators of financial stability, predictive assessment of the financial stability of the bank
Financial Research Institute: Its Role in the Financial History of Russia and Current Objectives
This article is dedicated to the history of establishing and developing of the Financial Research Institute (FRI) as the leading research institution of the Russian financial system. It points out objectives of the Institute under the current conditions, which involve its transformation into the advanced center of research on finance and budget policy.
Key words: financial history, FRI, Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, financial authorities, financial policy